Also, does Carson actually know what he’s talking about?
It’s time for me to cash those receipts. The problem is, I don’t know if the receipts will support my claims or refute them. I guess we’re going to find out together. That’s because today, I go through the last ten movie releases that I’ve done script reviews for.
The idea is to see if my assessment of the script was a proper indication of how the movie would perform. Now performance is a relative term. That’s what she said. And also what I said. That’s because certain movies get 100 million dollar advertising campaigns and others get 5 million dollar advertising campaigns.
We can’t compare those films on numbers alone. It has to be relative to the movie’s budget and marketing campaign. In order to provide more clarity, then, we’re going to look at the critical score (RT) and also the audience score (RT). If two out of the three of these numbers support my initial script rating, I consider my assessment of the script correct.
Although we can’t completely dismiss how the pandemic skewed these numbers, I stayed away from any movie released in 2020.
Okay, are we ready to see how right I was? Or how wrong?
Let’s do it!
BABYLON
Original Script Rating: What the hell did I just read?
Domestic: $13m
Worldwide: $13m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 55%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 51%
Breakdown: I knew this script was an utter disaster 30 pages in. If they would’ve stayed at the party the entire movie, maybe this movie would’ve had a chance, since, at least then, it would’ve been focused. But the second that party ends and we enter into this elongated nonsensical rant of a narrative, every ten pages was a million times worse than the previous ten pages. I call these movies, “The Big Swing,” because directors make them when they have a lot of heat and they can get anything made and so they make their weirdest most precious screenplay. And, unfortunately, these movies are often better in their heads than in reality. We saw this with Southland Tales, Under The Silver Lake, Bardo, Babylon, and the upcoming Beau is Afraid. “B” seems to be a common letter in a lot of these films. Bablyon is the biggest loser of all because Paramount put a giant marketing campaign into this, hoped it was going to be an Oscar contender, and instead it was a big incomprehensible mess.
Conclusion: Carson knew exactly what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: Impressive
Domestic: $8m
Worldwide: $8m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 65%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 91%
Breakdown: How’s the old saying go? You win some, you lose some. Looks like I lost this one. There’s no other way to look at it than to call this film a failure. It started out so positively, with Brendan Frasier getting 9 day standing ovation at the World Festival. When I reviewed the script, the one thing I was worried about was how small the movie was. It was a guy in his apartment. Now, unlike a lot of contained movies, this one was well-motivated. It was contained to one space because the main character was 600 pounds and couldn’t move. But I think, ultimately, that killed the movie cause it’s really hard to make non-genre contained movies entertaining for 100 minutes. If you don’t have murders or killer zombies outside trying to break in, where is the entertainment factor coming from? Maybe I was a little blinded by what Aronofsky would do with this. But, it the end, I have to take the L. This one I was wrong about.
Conclusion: Carson didn’t know what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: wasn’t for me
Domestic: $45m
Worldwide: $87m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 39%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 74%
Breakdown: Man, what a s—t show this project turned out to be. I’m not sure we’ll ever know what fully happened – if Harry Styles spat on Chris Pine. But I do know this. A script will tell you a ton about a movie. And this script had all the earmarks of a failed production. The story was too darn thin. And you might say, yeah, so then go rewrite it. Well, when something is this thin, a few rewrites is not going to do the job. It’ll fill in some of the gaps. But it won’t fill in all of them. And you could see that in the finished product. Things kind of connected. But not really. What was that plane doing in the sky? Who knows? It may be fun to write “mystery plane flies through sky” in a late-night writing sesh. But then you actually have to explain what it is at some point. The numbers on this film represent EXACTLY what that original script score indicated. The numbers aren’t disastrous. But they aren’t good. This project may have been cursed. But the real issue was probably buying a script and then not identifying how to fix it.
Conclusion: Carson knew exactly what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: Impressive
Domestic: $37m
Worldwide: $87m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 89%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 76%
Breakdown: I was going to declare this one a definitive win for Team Scriptshadow until I saw the budget. It cost 30 million to make this film. I thought it cost half that. Making 37 million at the box office on a 30 million dollar budget is not that impressive. With that said, I think most people consider this film a mild success. It got some pretty good buzz going for a concept that nobody had ever done before. That’s not easy to pull off. It got a really high RT score. And it did well worldwide for a movie that wasn’t an action or superhero flick. I felt the movie was a perfect adaptation of the script. The casting was great. Most everyone I know who’s seen the movie liked it. This wasn’t a runaway success but it definitely made a mark.
Conclusion: Carson pretty much knew what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: wasn’t for me
Domestic: 148
Worldwide: 401
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 41
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 90
Breakdown: These are probably the hardest movies to judge on the page because they’re so action-oriented and action doesn’t work nearly as well on the page as it does on the screen. I know that I did like that opening crazy set piece in the script, though. But, after that, there was a lack of elegance to the proceedings. It just seemed generic and dumb. Was the movie ultimately successful? I’m not sure it was, despite what Sony will tell you. It had a 120 million dollar budget and only made 148 domestic. That’s not a great number. The critical score was weak. And the audience score is most likely due to how likable the two leads – Wahlberg and Holland – are. Everybody likes those two. So I’m going to go ahead and chalk this up to me being right.
Conclusion: Carson pretty much knew what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: wasn’t for me
Domestic: $11m
Worldwide: $13m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 86%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 69%
Breakdown: I thought this was one of the thinnest concepts I’ve ever come across. And the script was one of the most basic obvious executions of that concept you can imagine. It was basically like an adult game of tag with the lights off. That should’ve been the title actually: Adult Game of Tag With The Lights Off. I later found out that the script had been written by the original short story author and she’d never written a script before. So they brought a real writer in to improve it. Which may explain why the film was a hit with critics. I will say that I could see talent and vision from the director in the trailer. That probably helped as well. I don’t know if you’d call this movie a hit, though. I know it got a little buzz. But I’m not sure 11 million is a good enough haul to call this movie a success. Which means, once again, I was correct!
Conclusion: Carson pretty much knew what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: Double-Impressive
Domestic: $22m
Worldwide: $52m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 68%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 88%
Breakdown: Just when I reach the top, they pull me back down again. I can’t escape this one. I thought this script was excellent. It was one of the best action thrillers I’ve ever read. But let’s be honest. The movie massively underperformed. In retrospect, you can kind of see why. It was posing as a big movie when, in reality, it was a medium one. You can see 15 ambulance chases in a Transformers movie alone. Why would you pay the exact same money for no Transformers and just the ambulance chase? I will say that I’m on record worrying about Bay as the director. Bay’s style is so well known that I was afraid it was just going to look like all the rest of his movies and not be able to differentiate itself. I also don’t like Bay’s weak attention span, which results in his movies moving too fast at times. But I’m making excuses. This one’s another L for me. I got it wrong.
Conclusion: Carson didn’t know what he was talking about
THE BLACK PHONE (review in newsletter)
Original Script Rating: double worth the read
Domestic: $90m
Worldwide: $161m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 83%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 88%
Breakdown: This may be the most low-key movie success story of the year. I saw very few stories about The Black Phone on the internet, and yet it made 90 million dollars. Which is incredible. It also scored well with critics and audiences. This analysis is a bit of a cheat since I read the short story and not the script (which was reviewed in my newsletter). But even then, you could just tell that the movie was going to work. You had two strong elements adding value to the story – the serial killer and the ghost phone. You’re always looking for a fresh angle in the serial killer genre and you’re always looking for a fresh angle in the horror genre. Hill said, “What if I just combine the two?” It turned out to be a genius move.
Conclusion: Carson very much knew what he was talking about
THE UNBEARABLE WEIGHT OF MASSIVE TALENT
Original Script Rating: double worth the read
Domestic: $20m
Worldwide: $29m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 87%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 87%
Breakdown: This script was one of a thousand that tries to get on the Black List with that well-known gag of using a real-life actor and placing them in the story. It just so happened that this script *did* make the Black List. And the actor actually agreed to be in it! Unfortunately, The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent is a minor failure. Almost everyone I know who saw it, liked it. But the industry was hoping for a lot more from this film. This was supposed to make Nicholas Cage a big star again. The film is a good example of where most movies end up, which is somewhere in that middle space. Not a big hit. Not a big failure. For that reason, I consider my assessment an incorrect one.
Conclusion: Carson didn’t really know what he was talking about
Original Script Rating: worth the read
Domestic: $101m
Worldwide: $239m
Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score: 54%
Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score: 76%
Conclusion: I had to double check my research here. Bullet Train crossed 100 million dollars at the box office?? Good for them! Bullet Train got a pretty bum rap when it first came out. But it ended up doing fairly well. From the moment I read the script, I pegged this as a movie that was right down the middle. It wasn’t going to cause any massive opinions one way or the other. And that was the problem with it. It was just kind of bland. Which is yet another reminder that scripts don’t lie. If they’re telling you, “This is average,” you don’t want to go make that movie hoping to fix that averageness in the production. It’s not going to happen. You gotta fix it in the script.
Conclusion: Carson very much knew what he was talking about
So what’s the tally? Carson knew what he was talking about with 7 out of the 10 screenplays. Which means, guess what? THE SCRIPT MATTERS FOLKS. You can tell when a script is going to result in a good movie and when it isn’t. And the thing is, I’m no one special. I’m guessing anyone here who read these scripts probably saw the same thing. If you have a script and there’s something that’s nagging you about it, there’s likely something to that. Address the issue and get it fixed. Then, and only then, are you going to make a great movie.
SCRIPT CONSULTATION DISCOUNT 100! – I’ve got a couple of screenplay consultation slots open. If you’re interested, e-mail me with the subject line, “100,” and I’ll take $100 off my regular rate. If you’ve never had notes from a professional before, I would strongly recommend taking this opportunity to do so. I can help you identify and fix things in your writing that would otherwise take you years to learn on your own. Not to mention, elevate your current script. So if you want to get a consult, e-mail me at carsonreeves1@gmail.com. I do features, pilots, first acts, short films, loglines, whatever you need me for!
