The box office numbers are IN for the third weekend of September and while, at first glance, it may seem like an inactive weekend, there is actually a lot going on here. Remaining in the number one spot is It: Chapter 2, which dropped 55% to 40 million dollars. For reference, Spider-Man: Far From Home made the exact same amount of money as It 2 did on its opening weekend, then made 45 million dollars in its second weekend, a 51% drop. Considering It 2 isn’t a very good movie, I’d be happy if I were Warner Brothers. And hey, the more non-Disney movies that top the box office, the better.
What I learned: Because you can slap it on a poster and sell millions of tickets, a fun terrifying villain with a mask can do wonders for your script’s marketability – even scripts that aren’t very good.
The biggest box office surprise this weekend (or dare I say, the summer!) is Hustlers. Who saw this coming?? A month ago, the similarly marketed, “The Kitchen,” tanked with 5 million dollars. Add to that Hustler’s biggest star is Jennifer Lopez, whose last five live-action movie openings are – 15 million for The Boy Next Door, 7 million for Parker, 10 million for What to Expect When You’re Expecting, 12 million for The Back-Up Plan, and 6 million for Second Act. On top of this, the trailers exhibited a mean-spirited tone. One gender ruthlessly exploiting another then celebrating it. For these reasons, I had this movie opening at 11 million TOPS! However, women really wanted this film (they made up 70% of the audience) and came out to the tune of 33 million.
But this begs the question – why did women support this movie and not The Kitchen? Is it the stripper aspect? Is it because the victims of the crimes are men – something the Hustlers trailer leaned into? One thing I tend to forget is that a well-made stripper movie will do well. I predicted the same sorry fate for Magic Mike when it came out and that film did huge business. It’s perpetually fascinating subject matter for people. I still remember when The Full Monty took over the world. And that movie was made for peanuts. I will say I’m happy for Lorene Scafaria, who both wrote and directed the film. I was a big fan of her early scripts, many of which I gave impressives to. I remember her being really bummed when her directing debut, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World, underperformed. I guess the universe came back to balance things out.
What I learned: I need to stop underestimating stripper scripts. Whether you’re writing a sexy drama or a goofy comedy, there’s a ton of material to play with in this subject matter. I won’t be fooled again.
The saddest, although not unexpected, box office story this weekend was The Goldfinch. The Oscar hopeful about… I’m not sure what, managed just 2.6 million dollars. That’s barely a $1000 a theater average, which amounts to the several people who thought they were walking into It 2, and by the time they realized it was a different movie, were too lazy to leave.
The Goldfinch has always perplexed me. As a novel, it would go on to win the Pulitzer and join the handful of novels on Amazon to receive over 25,000 ratings. I purchased it and, over the years, tried to read it several times, only to stop because of a) confusion, b) nothing was happening, and c) I had no idea what the story was about. So it’s not surprising to me that the trailer came out and afterwards everyone was shaking their heads mumbling, “Wait, so what’s the movie about again?”
People. One of the most important things when it comes to movies is CLARITY. People have to know what your movie is about. I may not have been into Hustlers, but I definitely understood what the movie was about after watching the trailer – strippers taking down white dudes. The thing is, somewhere in this novel/movie is a good concept. From what I can gather, this kid’s mom dies in a museum explosion/fire, and to hold onto her memory, he steals the million-dollar plus painting he was looking at when the explosion occurred – “The Goldfinch” – and many years later, the authorities suspect he might have stolen the painting and start closing in on him. That’s not a bad idea.
But where is the character goal? What is our hero trying achieve? In a novel, where you’re inside the character’s head, that’s not as important. But in a movie, where we can only see the outside of someone, we need an ACTION for them to PURSUE. And that’s why nobody came to see this movie. There was nothing in the trailer to indicate what our hero was pursuing. He just seemed really sad. And being really sad for three hours isn’t a movie. So chalk this one up to “should’ve remained a book.”
What I learned: Sadness on top of sadness never works. You need balance. You need humor or happiness to offset the sadness. Otherwise it’s too much. The most egregious example of this is 2003’s House of Sand and Fog, another novel adaptation. Sadness stacked on top of sadness stacked on top of sadness is a recipe for boredom (and a 2.5 million dollar opening weekend).
Next weekend holds one of the bigger wildcards of the fall – Ad Astra. The journey this movie’s gone on is almost as captivating as Brad Pitt’s journey through the solar system in the film. It started off as this secretive high-budget hard science fiction film from Fox. Then, Disney bought Fox. Immediately they started scrapping Fox movies. Somehow, Ad Astra, the most un-Disney movie of them all, survived the purge. This after Disney canceled the MOST Disney-like movie on Fox’s slate, Mouse Guard. Still, you could tell Disney was uncomfortable with the movie and rumors were that they were going to dump it into theaters with barely any marketing. Then Once Upon A Time in Hollywood came out and made 2019 the “The Summer of Brad Pitt,” so Disney changed its strategy and embraced the Pitt renaissance, focusing the marketing less on the deep dark subject matter and more on Pitt’s performance. All this has resulted in an impossible to predict box office take for the film. The current estimate is 20 million. But some people think it could do double that. What do you think?
What I learned: Make the journey personal for your hero. With Ad Astra, the writer could’ve easily made the person Brad Pitt is traveling the solar system in search of to be “some random dude.” Instead, he made it his father.
Finally, Taika Waititi’s Jo-Jo Rabbit just won the audience award at the Toronto Film Festival, beating out the likes of Joker, Just Mercy, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Knives Out, Ford vs. Ferrarri, Marriage Story, and Parasite. That may seem like a small deal, but, as Deadline points out, the Toronto Audience Award has become somewhat of a predictor for the Best Picture Oscar winner. The win is somewhat of a comeback for Rabbit, as many critics ran to the internet after the initial screening whining about the triggering content, seemingly ending Rabbit’s chances at an awards run. For regular movie lovers to call out their oversensitivity is a huge win, especially because Disney is so nervous about this film in the first place (it’s another Fox film they inherited and wanted to ditch, but they didn’t want to upset Waititi, who’s become a major player in the company’s future). I’m just glad that good screenwriting is being recognized. This was one of the best scripts I read last year. And I’m pumped that despite its “controversial” content, people are finally getting to see that.
What I learned: Audiences respond well when you put them through a full gamut of emotions. This film will make you angry, it will make you laugh, it will make you cry, it will make you happy. When you put someone through that kind of emotional roller coaster, they’re going to have a strong reaction to your script/movie. I have no doubt that’s why audiences loved this.
