ANNOUNCEMENT – I HAVE DECIDED THAT ALL MAYBES IN TODAY’S POST ARE OFFICIALLY ***IN*** THE BLOOD & INK SHOWDOWN.  CONGRATS!

(The following article is a follow-up to the Blood & Ink Contest. If you would like to learn more about the contest, you can go here)

First of all, I have to point out that this weekend was the biggest worldwide opening for a horror movie ever (The Conjuring). Oh, and three of the biggest movie surprise successes of the year – Weapons, Sinners, and Final Destination – were all horror films. We are coming up with this contest at the PERFECT time. Cause, for the next year, studios are going to rabidly pursue horror concepts. So, good for us for being timely.

Now, I want everyone to give yourselves a hand. We worked effing HARD this month. This was not easy. But I believe all the effort was worth it. We’ve found nearly 100 legit good horror movie ideas. And that’s something that never would’ve happened had we not done the Blood and Ink pitches.

I think all of us have learned just how valuable putting your ideas out there for feedback is. Most writers base their script choices on gut, which is unreliable. But here, if you had a bad idea, there were crickets. So, you knew that you had to come up with something better. And I saw that. I saw writers come back stronger after some early duds.

And I think we all learned that the fastest way to logline death is a vague logline. Especially when it gets vague at the end. There’s nothing more frustrating and I feel that all of you will move forward not making that mistake anymore.

Another thing you learn from seeing so many pitches is that a lot of people have similar ideas to you, which is an indication that you’re not digging deep enough when generating ideas. You’re not trying to come up with something truly original. So, hopefully, I’ve motivated you to look deeper and challenge your imagination when coming up with ideas.

Another thing I loved about this experience was the emergence of posters to help your pitch. That’s been a fun surprise. There were several instances where the poster specifically helped push the logline over the top. Grendl’s satanic building poster, for example. It totally helped me see the tone of that movie. Maybe we’ll do a posters-only showdown at some point. That could be fun.

Okay, let’s get down to business. First, I want to highlight our four classic commenters and who they voted in.

Jaco – ACHILLES by Joseph Jay Carroll Jr. – “When a German chemical weapon reanimates fallen soldiers as savage zombies, an immune messenger dog named Achilles becomes the Allies’ last hope, carrying the only known antidote across No Man’s Land to his handler’s camp.”

Scott – THE DEMONOLOGIST by Grant David – “A young priest joins a veteran exorcist as his apprentice, only to discover his mentor doesn’t exorcise demons out of people – he’s putting demons inside them.”

Poe – HELL AND BACK by Nolan Moore – When literal horned devils emerge from the tunnels of a West Virginia coal-mining town and abduct a handful of locals, a cynical WW1 veteran turned sheriff and the newly arrived reverend must lead a group of miners into hell to rescue their loved ones.

Brenkilco – #POSSESSED by Stefen X – After her deliberate attempt to become possessed for likes is actually successful, a fame-hungry influencer fights to rid herself of a manipulative demon who forces her to create increasingly horrific content that grows her audience for its pièce de résistance – her live death.

And now, we have our final leg of the competition. A lot of pitches almost made it into the big leagues with “maybes” but couldn’t quite get there. Therefore, I am posting my ten favorite “maybe” concepts and I’m asking you to vote for your favorite (from these ten) in the comments. Do this by simply writing in the TITLE of your favorite entry. The top THREE vote-getters will make it into the Blood & Ink Showdown. Here are my ten favorites.

Title: Relapse
Logline: A fading actor desperate to cure his addiction turns to a spiritual healer’s ancient ritual for a cure. The ritual awakens an entity that brutally punishes the ones he cares about every time he relapses, growing stronger with each slip – forcing him to fight the addiction and the entity before its too late.

Title: Dark Ice
Logline: On the anniversary of a tragic accident at the lake, six townspeople are found eerily sealed beneath its ice. A grief-stricken ranger must uncover the deadly force behind the entombments before it claims more lives.

Title: Chit Chat
Logline: After returning to the office from an uneventful weekend, a lonely Londoner fields increasingly aggressive small talk from everyone around him. As he escapes to the streets of London, the crowd and their furor grows as they attack him for answers to life’s smallest questions.

Title: Something Old
Logline: When a commitment-shy cop finally proposes with his grandmother’s engagement ring, the ritualistic killings that plagued his small town and claimed his grandfather start up again, while his fiancée acts more like Grandma every day.

Title: Karoshi: The Drive
Logline: People are working themselves to death – taxi drivers drive for days then crash, roofers work until falling to their deaths, an author writes a whole novel before dying at his keyboard. And then the cynical cop investigating these incidents realizes he can’t sleep or rest either. Growing ever more tired, weak and confused he must break the curse before it kills him too…

Title: The Zakim
Logline: A group of motorists become trapped when a monster intended to be the ultimate killing machine gets loose on Boston’s Zakim Bridge and the military won’t let anyone off until the beast feeds.

Title: My Demon Best Friend
Logline: A drug addicted prostitute on the brink of death from an overdose instead finds salvation and a new life when she gets possessed by a low-level but resourceful demon looking for redemption, and together they set out to reunite her with her family while battling her former pimp and his gang, and a high-ranking demon lord trying to claim her soul.

Title: Anyone
Logline: After a good Samaritan saves a recluse from a series of attacks by random people, she must uncover why strangers are compelled to murder him before she succumbs to the deadly urge herself.

Title: The Subtle Samurai
Logline: An oligarch motoryacht smuggling weapons becomes adrift in the Pacific Ocean before finding refuge on a deserted island. The heavily booby-trapped island of torture is the hunting ground for one dedicated Japanese soldier, who has spent 50 years preparing for this invasion.

Title: Everyone’s Watching
Logline: When a glamorous influencer family moves to a small coastal town, buys businesses, and starts their own church, a neighboring couple soon realizes that behind the charm lies cruelty, exploitation, and ruthless control — and resisting could cost them everything.

Start voting!  (voting ends at 10:00 pm Pacific Time tonight)

A couple of final reminders. If you got into the Blood & Ink Showdown in ANY way, please e-mail me at carsonreeves3@gmail.com with the subject line “INK.” I need your e-mail because I’m putting the Blood & Ink writers on a special mailing list, which will provide news, updates, info, and future deadlines, on the competition. So definitely e-mail me!

And I’m going to announce your first Mini-Showdown RIGHT NOW. This is for Blood and Ink writers only. We’re having a First Scene Showdown for your scripts on Friday September 26th. Deadline is Thursday September 25th. I’ll give you more information as we get closer. This showdown is NOT mandatory.  I just want to get you guys writing.  :)

ALL PITCHING IS NOW CLOSED!

I have a direct line to, arguably, the biggest person in horror in all of Hollywood. This person has been in the trades relentlessly lately. And he trusts my taste implicitly. If I send him a script that I say I love, he’ll start reading it within 10 minutes.

This was the impetus for this contest. I want to send this guy a great horror script. But I thought, “How do I find a great horror script?” A truly great horror script from an amateur writer hits my desk once every four years. I wanted to speed up that process.

The answer came quickly. Increase the number of good movie ideas that are being sent my way. Which means get the writer BEFORE they’ve written the script instead of after. And have them keep pitching ideas until we find an awesome one. That strategy has nabbed us 80 really freaking good movie ideas so far. And my plan is for this weekend to make it an even 100.

If you want to know more details about my plan, here’s the initial post.

But now, it’s time to start pitching again.

How does this work?

You pitch your horror logline down in the comments. Include your title and subgenre (i.e. horror comedy, horror thriller, etc.) and I will tell you whether the idea is good enough to advance to the official competition, in which case, you will write the entire script.

Here are the responses I will leave after your pitch and what they mean.

No – Doesn’t make the cut.
Maybe – No but you can improve the logline and pitch again immediately.
Strong Maybe – You’re in.
Yes – You’re in plus special treatment.

You get FIVE logline pitches this weekend.

If you’re worried that I’m too hard to please, consistent commenters, Brenkilco, Jaco, Poe, Scott Crawford, and Arthur all have a “YES” vote, so they can save you.

You can also get in if your concept GETS UPVOTED 15 TIMES.

So, I encourage everyone here to be constantly screening the newest entries and upvoting any concept you like. It could literally change a writer’s life. And this supersedes a “no.” So, even if I “no” a concept, it can still advance with 15 upvotes.

A few final thoughts.

There are no more “soft maybes.”

You get to campaign for your logline ONE TIME. So if you’re close to getting 15 votes, feel free to link to your logline comment and make your pitch for why you deserve to be voted in.

Finally, there’s one more way to get in. On Monday, I’m going to be posting my 10 favorite ‘maybe’ loglines that were pitched over the past month. You guys will vote for your favorites. The top THREE vote-getters will make it into the official competition. So you want to at least leave this weekend with a ‘maybe.’

Here are a few recent logline articles I have written to help you out –

LOGLINE ARTICLE 1
LOGLINE ARTICLE 2
BONUS ARTICLE 3

Between sleep and weekend activities, there will be periods where I can’t moderate or rule on your entries. So be patient!

I’m excited to see what you guys are going to pitch me this weekend. Go at it!

P.S. If you are already in with a ‘strong maybe’ or a ‘yes,’ PLEASE E-MAIL ME with the subject line, “INK,” along with TITLE and LOGLINE in the message body.  Everybody who’s a part of this contest will be placed on a special newsletter so I can keep you updated on important announcements.  If you’re not on that newsletter, you will miss a lot of very important information. E-mail me at: carsonreeves3@gmail.com

P.P.S. If you want to have more of a conversation about your logline pitches, rather than just a ‘yes’ or a ‘no,’ or you want to pitch your ideas in private, you can order my logline service. It’s $25 for a logline analysis (along with a yes or no) and $50 for unlimited e-mails where we workshop a weak logline into something that is potentially contest worthy. There are no guarantees, though. You can’t put lipstick on a pig. If you want to use this service, e-mail me at carsonreeves1@gmail.com.

As we gear up for the final weekend of horror pitches (starting tomorrow!), I wanted to broach the most common question I’ve been asked during this submission process. And that question is, “Should I reveal my big twist in the logline?”

In order to answer this question, a question I’ve been asked so many times over the years I’ve lost count, you have to understand what the purpose of a logline is. Because I don’t think enough writers know. I think they believe that a logline is like a trailer or a poster. You would never reveal your movie’s big twist in the trailer or the poster, so why would you reveal it in the logline?

The answer is that a logline has a different objective, and that objective is to place a movie idea in front of someone who has the power to make a movie so they can make a quick decision on whether that’s a movie they would want to make. If it sounds like something they’d want to make, they’ll request the script. They’ll then read the script and make a final decision on whether to make the movie or not.

Even if you’re not sending a logline to someone who’s directly responsible for greenlighting a movie, you are still sending it to someone who will be thinking in those terms. So, if you’re sending it to an agent, he will be looking at the logline through the producer’s point of view.

What does this mean in terms of what you should include in your logline? Well, what it means is that industry people are not reading scripts to enjoy them. Yes, everybody loves to read a good script. But they’re not reading scripts for the same reasons that moviegoers go see movies. To them, they’re reading the script for business reasons. They’re reading the script in hopes of finding something that can make them money so they can keep their jobs.

This is why, when you’re writing a logline, you want to include as much relevant information as you can.

Another relevant piece to this puzzle is that you’re competing against a ton of other loglines. This is something I think too many writers forget. They’re so wrapped up in all the time and energy they’ve put into their script that they think just conveying that they’ve written the screenplay should be enough for people to be interested.

But the reality is, since you’re competing with so many other loglines, it is essential that your logline stand out. Which brings us back to the original question. “Should I reveal my big twist in the logline?” Well, knowing what you know now, what do you think?

Chances are that if you have a big twist in your script, it’s the biggest selling point of the script. Therefore, if you don’t include it, you are not including the thing that has the best chance at making your logline stand out from the competition. “But Carson,” you say, “Then, when they read the script, it won’t be as enjoyable because they’ll already know the twist.”

Again, the job of a logline and a screenplay is not to entertain the person as much as it is to get them to make the movie. And smart producers can identify a great twist even if they hear about it ahead of time.

Of course, we can have the discussion about how powerfully a twist will hit someone in the moment as opposed to ahead of time.  But here’s the problem. If your twist is the main selling point of your script and you don’t mention it in the logline, the producer won’t request the script. So they never get to the point where they can experience the twist while reading the screenplay.

Now, just like any discussion about art, there is nuance. So, let’s get into the nuanced part of this conversation. We’ll start with what I call the “climax holy shit twist.” Think The Sixth Sense. Primal Fear. The Others. Saw. And The Usual Suspects. For scripts like this, you don’t want to include the twist in your logline. This is because the twist happens so late in the story and is so big, that you are literally destroying the reading experience by revealing it. So, if you have a twist like this, don’t include it in your logline.

But, what if you’ve written a script like The Matrix? That has a giant twist in it as well. Except that giant twist comes at the end of the first act, when we discover that Neo has been living in a fake constructed reality. In that case, you will DEFINITELY include the twist in the logline.

In fact, here’s a rule you can bank on 99% of the time. If you have a big twist that happens up to and including the midpoint of your script, you should include it in your logline. So, yes, that means that, if you’ve written From Dusk Till Dawn, where there’s a major twist at the midpoint, you would include that in your logline.

Some of you may call that blasphemous. “No! That must be preserved for the reading experience!” (Spoilers). Well let me ask you this. What does the logline look like without the big twist of the vampires? It’s just a bunch of random crazy shit happening. You could spend weeks obsessively trying to craft the perfect logline for that, but it’s not going to have anywhere close to the same request rate as the version of the logline that includes the twist of vampires.

Are there exceptions to this?

Yes, there is, actually.

The HUGE concept.

If you have a concept that is gigantic, it can override the need to expose the twist. And this goes back to my original explanation. A logline is meant to convey to a producer whether that movie could make money for them. Therefore, if you have a really giant idea, a la Jurassic Park, that’s enough to convince the producer that they can make a movie out of this. So the objective of the logline has been fulfilled.

But before you go off and start coming up with huge concepts with big twists so you can write loglines that don’t have to include those twists, it’s important to keep in mind that this combination is pretty rare. Mainly because if you have a giant concept, you don’t need a big twist. So that will be a very unique situation.

Let’s say, in spite of all of this, you’re still on the fence. You think that your script is different. You’re worried that if you reveal the twist in the logline that it will destroy the reading experience. I have good news for you. It won’t. In fact, it sometimes makes your script better.

Knowing what’s coming creates a fourth-wall breaking form of dramatic irony, which is when we, the reader, know more than the characters. In that sense, it can be exciting to know what our characters are in for!

If you have any doubt about this, look no further than how many times you’ve watched your favorite movie. Why do you keep watching it even though you know exactly what’s going to happen? It is this form of dramatic irony that still makes the movie entertaining. I know that Marty McFly is going to end up in his mother’s room, who’s going to fall for him, and he’s going to freak the hell out and look for any way to escape, and I can’t wait for the characters to catch up to me.

Finally – and this is something I hope you’ve learned over the last three pitch weekends – the more vague your logline is, the less effective it is. Every time a writer has tried to hide the cool things from their logline, that logline has failed. So, in almost every situation, if you’re debating whether to include the cool part in your logline, you should definitely choose to put it in your logline. It actually shocks me that writers would choose the opposite. A logline’s job is to sell the script. Obviously, then, you want to put your best, most detailed, most comprehensive logline forward!

Hopefully, this has charged a few of you up. If you have a logline that you think is on the “twist” fence and want professional advice, I can give you a logline consultation. They’re 25 bucks. E-mail me at carsonreeves1@gmail.com if you’re interested.

And speaking of twists, everyone should go watch “Unknown Number: The High School Catfish” on Netflix. It’s got a whopper of a twist (what I would call a “holy shit twist”). Don’t look anything up online. Lots of spoilers out there. Just go watch it.

Today we discuss one of the most intensely debated topics in screenwriting

Genre: Action-Thriller
Logline: A star quarterback hides a twisted secret—he’s a serial killer carving up victims between games. But when a relentless detective starts connecting the dots, his perfect season—and double life—begin to unravel. American Psycho meets Any Given Sunday.
About: This script finished as the fourth best entry in the Mega-Showdown contest. It was seen as the most daring of the four finalists, which made it polarizing. I always say that if you can’t be the best, then at least be polarizing because polarizing gets people talking. Which is exactly what this script has done.
Writer: Bill Lawrence
Details: 93 pages

Football season is upon us (daaaaaaaa Bears!). So what better way to celebrate than to review a script that debuted here on Scriptshadow!

This is our fourth place finisher, QB1, aka American Psycho in the football world. A few people have been asking if I’m still going to have the Second Chance Showdown for the entries that didn’t make it to the official showdown. The answer is yes. I will have two weekends of them, and those will occur in succession after this coming weekend. So the Showdown fun is not stopping any time soon.

QB1, which is our main character’s name, not just the title of the script, is not your average NFL quarterback. When QB1 watches as his safety blows a coverage, leading to their first week opponent scoring a touchdown and defeating our protagonist’s team, QB1 invites the safety to dinner. AND THEN LATER THAT NIGHT KILLS HIM.

Weak safety problem solved. Not only that, but QB1 starts playing better, and guides us through the process via his aggressive, sarcastic narration. There isn’t a towel boy, waiter, linebacker, or Starbucks customer that is safe from his ongoing opinionated voice-over. But it’s better to be a victim of his narration than his knife, which he next uses to slice up the abusive father of a cancer-stricken young girl who asked for his autograph.

The more he kills, the better QB1 plays. But you can’t kill everyone because then local law enforcement gets involved. And that’s exactly what happens when a young female detective becomes convinced that QB1 is responsible for the disappearance of his safety.

She starts coming around his place, asking all these questions, even demanding to see his basement (where the killing happened). Once QB1 realizes this detective isn’t going away, he uses his celebrity, making a call to the police captain, and insisting that the young detective is obsessed with him, providing made-up evidence, which is convincing enough for the captain to suspend the detective.

This allows QB1 to clear his head and focus on football, and the team storms into the playoffs, where they’re on an inevitable collision with the Super Bowl champs, a team with a coach who dissed QB1 in college, making the game extra important to win.

There are certain movies throughout time that screenwriters have become obsessed with and want to write their versions of. Heathers is one of them. Breakfast Club. And American Psycho. American Psycho may be right there at the top.

Which makes sense. It’s the perfect screenwriting show-off script. You get to write a delicious main character who prattles on about every possible thing he can think of. It’s almost like this cathartic channel by which to spout every annoyance or frustration that has ever popped into your head during the day.

As a result, I encounter these scripts a lot.

What makes them so challenging is that the main character is a killer. And his myriad of thoughts aren’t very nice. This brings the character into one the most highly debatable areas in screenwriting, which is “unlikability.” The character is inherently unlikable. And since he’s leading the audience, that can be unsettling.

How, then, do you make an “American Psycho” work? You have to make the protagonist’s observations a combination of funny and/or honest. “There’s no use in denying it: this has been a bad week. I’ve started drinking my own urine,” Patrick Bateman says.

When I say “honest,” what I mean is that the character says what he’s really thinking, regardless of if it’s offensive. As long as it’s truthful, tons of people will inwardly relate to the observation, drawing them closer to the protagonist.

But here’s the reason unlikability hurts a script. When you get deeper into the story, during times when narratives tend to struggle, when the script engine isn’t as primed and we’re not close enough to the climax to keep us motivated, all we have is our hero to get us through that time. So if we don’t like him, the story can really drag.

And that happened to me here. I was mildly entertained listening to QB1 take us through the story. But once I knew where things were headed, I needed more than mildly amusing. I needed to like and want to root for this person.

To Bill’s credit, he understands this challenge, which is why he makes sure that QB1 kills cancer-stricken girl’s abusive father. And he designs entire scenes around making sure you like our hero. For example, late in the story, he wins 15 million dollars at the craps table and gives it all to the attendant. He tells her to spend the money wisely.

And while, technically, it’s a nice thing to do, I couldn’t help but feel like it was a move by Bill to stave off the exact criticism he knew would be coming. It was as if he said, “You’re going to call my hero unlikable!? Well check this out. I’m going to write a scene where he gives some random poor girl 15 million dollars! Try calling him unlikable now!”

But screenplays don’t work that way. They’re not buttons you can push that automatically change the way the reader feels. Every choice, every development, has to be organically and cleverly woven into the script so that we don’t realize when the writer is trying to make us love their hero in spite of the terrible things he’s doing. Which is hard. But that’s what you sign up for when you write a script like this one. If you’re going to write a 10 out of 10 difficulty script, then get ready for some super advanced level screenwriting challenges.

But look, I applaud Bill for taking a risk here. He’s known for a different kind of movie and this is exactly what you do when you want to break out of that pigeonholed role you’re in. It reminds me a lot of what Michael R. Perry did a decade ago with his script, The Voices. He was frustrated with the types of jobs he was getting and he wrote this weird serial killer script and it became a phenomenon around town and totally changed his career trajectory. All of a sudden, he was getting offered much more interesting projects. I hope the same thing happens for Bill, regardless of me not loving QB1.

Screenplay link: QB1

[ ] What the hell did I just read?
[x] wasn’t for me
[ ] worth the read
[ ] impressive
[ ] genius

What I learned: Too many writers fall into the trap of creating what I call the “mildly annoying detective”—a bumbling investigator who asks a few questions, follows obvious leads, and poses no real threat to the protagonist. This character serves only as a plot device, checking the box for “law enforcement presence” without generating any genuine tension. The result? Readers remain emotionally detached, confident that the hero will easily outmaneuver this ineffective pursuer. Instead, you want to make your detective relentless. They should operate on a level that makes both protagonist and reader genuinely nervous. They should ask the exact questions that probe the weakest points in carefully constructed alibis, and pursue leads with a methodical precision that feels relentless rather than casual. — The detective in this story was very aggressive for the first 60% of the script. But then Bill let our hero off the hook. The captain suspends the detective, stripping her of her power. She wasn’t nearly as much of a threat anymore. During the end of the script, you want to do the opposite. You want the pressure to ramp up even more! So there was a missed opportunity there.

Let me start by saying, thank you to everyone who’s submitted to the Blood & Ink Showdown so far. I know it can be difficult putting your ideas out there to be judged. I always try and give some sort of explanation for why I say “no” but sometimes I have to get through a lot of pitches quickly which means I only have time to write a quick “no.” Please don’t take it personally.

Next weekend is the last weekend to pitch your horror ideas. If you’re not in yet, I would generate 5 pitches a day throughout the week and then, when the weekend comes, pitch the best 5 loglines you’ve got. You’ll have a better shot.

Next weekend will see the end of the “soft maybe” as there are no more weekends to carry your loglines into. And I do have good news for those of you who are stuck in Maybe-ville. I’m going to be accepting 5 “maybes” into the contest through the process of voting. That will happen AFTER next weekend’s pitches. So, at the very least, you’re going to want to get a “maybe.”

But today, I want to take a break from loglines to talk about the movie box office this summer, which isn’t doing great. Why do I want to talk about the box office? Because it affects the types of screenplays we should be writing. So, the better we can deduce what’s causing this rejection of current offerings, the better we’ll be at knowing what to write next.

And let’s start right at the top, since it’s so connected to the contest I’m running. The two big movie surprises this year have been Sinners and Weapons. Guess what genre those movies are in? Horror. Which means The Blood & Ink Showdown is right in the genre we want it to be.

But it’s not just that. It’s that both of these movies WERE ORIGINAL IDEAS. Which is awesome. It’s exactly what we’ve been saying Hollywood is missing. Audiences want original ideas. But I’m worried they’re going to focus more on the success of the genre and not enough on the fact that they were original.

I finally saw Weapons myself yesterday (here’s my old script review) and I thought it was great. But, more than that, it was different. It had this weird mystery at the center of it. It’s not told in a traditional easy-to-digest package. Instead, it’s told through individual points of view. These are things that studios traditionally believe mainstream audiences can’t handle. But they clearly can.

Even the number one movie of the year so far, Minecraft, FEELS different than other mainstream movies. And if you really look into it, it makes sense why it did so well. The mainstream big budget option for the past decade has been superheroes. We’re tired of that. So if you give us something even slightly different that also has the big budget treatment, we’ll flock to that movie.  And they have evidence of this every year yet they still don’t push it.  We saw it with Top Gun.  We saw it with Barbie. We’re done with these superhero movies.

I was holding out hope that James Gunn was going to bring something fresh to the table. But Superman was just a slightly more upbeat (and colorful) version of the superhero movies we’re used to. It wasn’t different enough. I truly think that we’ve reached the end with this genre. The last big hit was Deadpool and Wolverine and that’s going to be it.

They’re still hoping Avengers is going to save the day but I don’t see how it can. The reason that the original two Avengers movies were two of the biggest movies ever was because every Marvel movie was building up, both in story and box office, over the previous ones. So it really felt like the culmination of something special.

Not only is that not going on here, it’s actually headed in the opposite direction. The last three Marvel movies, Brave New World, Thunderbolts, and Fantastic Four, have done terribly. I suppose you could argue Fantastic Four did okay. But that’s only because the bar for success on superhero movies has fallen so low that we now label something as successful if it makes half as much money as an equivalent Marvel movie would’ve made five years ago.

So what does this all mean for screenwriters? It’s hard to tell because what Hollywood knows and what they’re actually willing to do are two different things. Sinners and Weapons are telling them to make more original material. So that’s what they should be thinking. But Hollywood is notoriously terrified of going down the original route because it’s so uncertain. They have zero comps or rules they can rely on to know if something’s going to do well or not. This is why you usually only see big original chances being taken in horror, because horror is inexpensive.

But at some point, if Hollywood wants to survive, it has no choice but to move to original material. Whether they do that now or they wait for the overall box office to drop another 20%, there’s no way around it. And they know this. But a studio is like a person. Nobody truly changes unless their back is against the wall. So they will wait until the last second to accept this. When do I think the last second will be? D-Day will probably be Avengers Doomsday third weekend.

I know that’s a strange claim so let me explain. Avengers will be the true litmus test of if the superhero genre is dead. The first weekend, unless it’s drastically low, will be spun by the trades as a win. But the real data is in the second weekend drop. However, since Doomsday arrives on December 18, 2026, that means the second weekend will be Christmas, when a lot of families go to movies. So that second weekend should be strong. By the way, this is why they’re putting it a week before Christmas, so that the second weekend drop doesn’t drop much. They wouldn’t have that luxury if they opened in the summer.

Therefore, it’s the third weekend that you’ll see the drop. And how big that drop is is going to tell us everything. Literally the only way it’s not a giant drop is if the movie is good. I don’t see how that’s going to be possible. Bringing back a tired (and failed) Russo Brothers along with Robert Downey Jr. in a strange “other character” scenario feels desperate. Nor does anything here feel planned.  There are numerous stories about how they’re shooting without a script.  Nothing sounds promising here.  Even Deadpool joining the gang is tainted by Blake Lively’s mean girl parade lawsuit.

Despite that harsh criticism, Disney may be more ahead of the game than I’m giving them credit for. They’ve been letting agents and producers know they’re looking for male-dominated ORIGINAL material. I’ll believe this when I see it (if they start announcing a bunch of sales) but it’s an indication that they’re accepting originality is the only path forward. Which is saying A LOT about Disney, considering that they have more IP than anyone.

And let’s not overlook the male part of that request either. It seems like the era of the industry knee-jerkingly wanting a woman in the lead may be over. The studios have lost a lot of male moviegoers, and they’re sorry and want them back. Well, they’re not sorry. They just want money. But still. Men have always been the backbone of the movie-buying public, just like women have always been the backbone of the book-buying public. Disney either let politics cloud that reality or hoped to bridge the gap, or some combination of both. But they’ve come to the conclusion that dudes like movies more than dudettes so maybe you should gear a lot of movies towards dudes.

All right, what have we learned here? Originality is finally being valued in Hollywood and may become even more valued after the release of Avengers Doomsday next year. Horror is hot right now. And Hollywood wants men back. So male-centric concepts should do well. What else do you need to know? Start writing!